Shakey Alliances for Virgin Blue

John Borghetti at Virgin Blue is getting some bad news lately with both the Department of Transport and the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission raising objections to proposed alliances. The DoT have said they don’t like the look of the alliance with Delta (aka Delta-V) while the ACCC have said the same about the proposed alliance with Air New Zealand. The ACCC have also said they’re going to expedite their review of the recently announced alliance with Etihad so hopefully that one doesn’t get blocked too.

While I wouldn’t necessarily say that these alliance plans are in tatters, they are certainly taking some body blows and aren’t looking too healthy. Unless Virgin Blue, Delta & Air New Zealand can put up some good responses to the various objections, the proposed linkages aren’t going to happen for a while.

So the big question from this is what will Borghetti do if the Delta & Air New Zealand alliances are blocked? He’s already shown he is not adverse to culling failing operations or routes as he has removed Pacific Blue’s domestic operations in New Zealand and pulled the V Australia 777s out of Johannesburg, Fiji & Phuket.

If he can’t get cosy with Delta across the Pacific, will he ramp up V Australia’s presence in the market or pull out entirely and settle for a code-share with Delta, channeling Virgin Blue’s domestic passengers onto Delta and taking their passengers around Australia. If he leaves the Pacific to a linkage with Delta, will he redirect the 777s to routes into Abu Dhabi to supplement flights from Etihad? Could he decide to drop the long haul 777s all together to focus on the Australian domestic market and short international flights to the Pacific and South East Asia with 737s and A330s?

It’s always an interesting time when an organisation changes CEO and direction, especially when that CEO is introducing new ways of operating (not to mention also bringing over a lot of their mates from the old job). The transition at Virgin Blue was fascinating to watch before this latest news hit the headlines but the tension has certainly been cranked up a few more notches. For now, the question remains: how will Borghetti’s strategy of expansion through strong international alliances adapt to this.

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VW Car Club at the Moorabbin Air Museum



On a cold & windy morning at at the end of May, we had cancelled the day’s scheduled balloon flight in the Yarra Valley so on the way home, I figured I’d drop by Moorabbin Airport to pick up a few items from the pilot shop. I arrived about 45 minutes before the shop opened but fortunately there was some activity over at the Australian National Aviation Museum (aka Moorabbin Air Museum) where I’m a member, so I drove back over to check it out.


VW van with Bristol Freighter
It turned out to be the Volkswagon Car Club who had come to set up a concourse amongst the aircraft on static display outside the museum hangars. The museum staff had opened the fence to allow them to squeeze in and get positioned. Excellent!

There were VW beetles everywhere so I started grabbing some photos which have now been loaded into an album on my gallery. They were still bringing in vehicles as I was leaving to go back to the shop, including a great collection of Kombi vans and more modern vehicles as well.


VW Beetle quorum at the museum

Unfortunately I was pressed for time as I left so I wasn’t able to get photos of the rest of the cars that arrived. The main length of fence along Second Ave was packed with vehicles squeezed in around the aircraft. Most amusing to see :)


Regal VW car meets Vickers Viscount

Anyone for Golf?

Collection of VWs in front of a Meteor

Funky VW based buggy with Westland Wessex
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Matt Hall teaches us all how to “take our lumps”

When we used to have a blog at the Plane Crazy Down Under show’s website, my co-host Steve Visscher posted this article about our friends at the Airplane Geeks Podcast. I’ve posted it here to preserve his words so they weren’t lost when the blog was shut down.


By now most of you have seen the dramatic footage of Matt Hall’s incident in Windsor, Canada.  A high G turn that went wrong saw him plunge downward, recover to wings level and do a little surfing on the river before climbing out to safety – all in a matter of seconds.

Although I’m not an expert on high performance aircraft such as the MXS-R, I’m fairly certain that it’s not an amphib, and to say Matt was lucky to survive with little more than battered pride and some cosmetic damage  is clearly an understatement.  The quick recovery to flight is testament to his high skills and military training.  The ability to instantly assess the situation and instinctively take the required corrective action is something that I believe certain pilots are born with.  The military training just perfects that ability.

There have been many articles written about the incident itself, so I need not re-hash it any further here, but the aspect of this story that fascinates me is the way in which Matt has handled the events that have followed since that day in Windsor.

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F35 for $60 million each (batteries not included :)

Recent reports state that Lockheed Martin are willing to put a fixed price limit on the F35. Indications are that it will be about US$60 million or so BUT we need to note the caveats:

  1. This is for Low Rate Initial Production 4 (LRIP 4) aircraft, not an aircraft that matches the final production specification
  2. It’s based on the assumption that a very large number of aircraft will be produced (more than anyone’s currently talking about ordering)
  3. The US$60 million is for the Conventional Take Off & Landing (CTOL) version of the F35, as opposed to the carrier based version or the Short Take Off, Vertical Landing (STOVL) version that’s to replace the Harrier. This isn’t such a big deal for Australia though as we’re going for the CTOL F35A and officially not looking at the other variants.

The mainstream media are reporting on LM’s fixed price offer and some are even pointing out a few of the caveats listed above (especially the more aviation focused groups). The big issue I’ve not seen being discussed though relates to capability. Some are touching on it, but we need to have this asked in the headlines of the mainstream media and have real answers provided:

How much will it cost to bring these aircraft up to the advertised “full functionality” F35?

Lockheed Martin have sold everyone on the amazing capabilities of the F35 and on paper it looks great, although some concerns have been raised about its ability to deal with modern Russian/Chinese aircraft & tactics. Regardless, the sizzle of the F35 that’s being sold by Lockheed Martin is certainly a wonderful machine and the F35 cockpit simulator I spent some time with at Avalon 2009 had me drooling for sure.

So what’s the difference between the LRIP 4 F35 and the “all the bells & whistles” version that everyone’s using to paint a picture of the glorious future Australian air defence environment?

Is the gap between LRIP 4 and “fully effective & worth the money” like a car advert where headline price quoted is for the base model that doesn’t have stereo, air conditioning or power mirrors? You know, the bits that make the car great but their absence will not stop it being a very functional & economical unit that meets 80-90% of your driving needs.

Or, is it like the similar version of this advert that has the little asterisk next to the price and wwwaaayyyy down the bottom (in very fine print) a note relating to “on-road costs not included”? You know, the dealer fees, registration, etc. Those last few essential items that you really have to have in order to get the damned thing into your name and out of the show room. It’s still a great car that will meet 80-90% of your needs, but now there’s an extra 5-10% added onto the price before you can actually make good use of it.

Or is it even worse? Is the LRIP 4 F35 like buying a car that has the wrong type of wheels or has clunky steering. You know, it does most things OK but only if it’s not raining and if you really try to drive it how you want, it’s going to break or can’t go over 60km/h, etc. In other words, something that doesn’t match what’s being sold and doesn’t meet even 50% of your requirements without extensive upgrades & further costs required.

Until the capability gap information is made available, we cannot determine whether Lockheed Martin’s fixed price offer is a good thing or not. We also need to find out if there are other caveats related to flexibility in missing deadlines and milestones, such that LRIP 4 winds up delivering even less capability than may currently be planned.

Does a publically accessible roadmap showing capabilities across the various LRIP and production versions exist? Will “we the people” ever know exactly what our politicians and bureaucrats are signing our tax funds up for?

My fear is that all of this information will, of course, be classified and that Australia will sign on for the US$60 million per aircraft price at great fanfare so the government can say “See, we’re saving you money!” Then we wind up having to pay an additional $20-$40 million per aircraft over a number of years to bring them up to a level where they can actually do 80% of what is being promised. Of course, this will come out of the operational expenses account as opposed to a capital expenditure account and will be a problem for some other government long after the current lot have retired.

Sadly, my gut feel is that this scenario is very likely to occur…

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If it’s New, it’s JQ!

I’ve spoken before about the on-going Jetstarisation of Qantas and despite Alan Joyce’s previous comments to the effect that there would be no further “jetstarisation,” recent developments certainly seem to indicate that this is not the case. We’ve previously joked about Jetstar taking over at Qantas and have occasionally used the phrase:

Qantas, a member of the Jetstar group

While this is a joke comment and I very much doubt we’ll ever see the reality officially recognised like this, recent actions and statements from the Qantas group have led me to coin the phrase:

If it’s new, it’s JQ!

Jetstar iPad image supplied by Jetstar

Jetstar iPad image supplied by Jetstar

The first and most obvious indicator that Jetstar is where the action is relates to the introduction of an iPad trial on Jetstar flights. Most reports have been gushing about the cool factor or the chance to do away with bulky in flight entertainment (IFE) systems. Others have questioned how they’ll prevent theft, how they’ll recharge and/or restock content and how long that 10 hour battery life will actually last when showing movies after multiple re-charge cycles.

No one, however, appears to have asked the obvious question:

Why is this trial being run on the cut-price, budget, no frills Jetstar brand instead of on a Qantas branded flight?

Is it because people are used to paying for IFE (indeed, anything!) on Jetstar so shelling out $10 wouldn’t be questioned as it might by those who are expecting more for their higher ticket price? Is it because Qantas are trying to associate “cool” with Jetstar? Is it because it’s easier to get Jetstar staff to trial new systems because it doesn’t have to be leveraged into a complex work agreement?

For whatever reason, it seems odd that something new, innovative and generally perceived as “cool” is being run on Jetstar. Maybe it’s because the bulk of the future growth within the Qantas group is going to be in Jetstar, so it’s better to trial this technology in the conditions it’s most likely going to encounter.

Perhaps a more blatant indication of the expansion of Jetstar compared to Qantas mainline is its encroachment on international routes. Qantas have said that they will use Jetstar on routes that do not have the margin to support a mainline service. Given the trend towards low price & discount operations, this can only mean that the Orange Star will be seen more & more around the world instead of the Flying Kangaroo.

Qantas route Map from AirlineRouteMaps.com

Qantas route Map from AirlineRouteMaps.com

A prime example of this is the expansion of Jetstar’s international routes out of Singapore and the increase in pilots they’re basing at Singapore & Auckland. Rather than basing pilots in Australia for flights into Europe, Jetstar are basing them in Singapore where they’ll fly on to Europe while Australian based pilots fly to & from Singapore (and probably no further). Jetstar pilots based in Singapore are apparently paid more than those based in Australia but even so, they’re paid significantly less than Qantas mainline pilots.

With the increase in pilots based in New Zealand (where they’re paid much less money than those based in Australia), it is also likely that more international routes will have crews from New Zealand flying into Australia and then on to the USA, Japan or Singapore as well as the increase in direct international flights from New Zealand.

Naturally the use of pilots based outside of Australia has raised the ire of the Australian & International Pilots Association (AIPA), the union that represents both Qantas mainline and Jetstar pilots. They’re up in arms about lack of consultation and using offshore based pilots to avoid Australia’s employment laws.

Again, no one has commented on the fact that increased use of Jetstar pilots on international routes means no expansion of Qantas mainline pilots and, in fact, fewer mainline pilots in the future if more routes transition to Jetstar.

As if all this wasn’t enough, Emirates have purchased more A380s which can only mean a significant increase in capacity out of Australia. Given the competition that Qantas faces from Emirates with their extremely discounted airfares (not to mention their levels of service, especially in the premium market) it is likely that more & more passengers from Australia will use Emirates for their flights to Europe. This in turn will put more pressure on Qantas to use Jetstar where possible, further increasing the likelihood that we’ll one day see a long haul A380 with Jetstar colours and seating arrangements.

You know it'll happen sooner or later...

You know it’ll happen sooner or later…

While Alan Joyce indirectly acknowledged Emirates’ growth when he recently announced that Qantas mainline services were seeing an increase in traffic, he fobbed off Emirates by saying that the Middle East was an unprofitable growth area that Qantas are not interested in. This statement makes it seem like Middle Eastern carriers are only taking people to their home bases which, unfortunately for Qantas, is clearly not the case. These carriers are offering faster, cheaper & better quality services to most points of Europe with a single stop over. To counter act this, Qantas are trying to open up more direct flights out of Singapore via Jetstar to compete on price & flexibility with the Middle East carriers. Yet again more growth in Jetstar and not in Qantas mainline.

If trends like these continue, I expect you’ll be hearing “Jetstarisation” crop up again & again. You’ll certainly be hearing us saying “If it’s new, it’s JQ!” more often. Just remember, you heard it here first :)

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Congratulations to the Airplane Geeks Podcast – 100 Episodes Strong!

When we used to have a blog at the Plane Crazy Down Under show’s website, my co-host Steve Visscher posted this article about our friends at the Airplane Geeks Podcast. I’ve posted it here to preserve his words so they weren’t lost when the blog was shut down.


In the brave new world of new media, and podcasting in particular, it is often easy to become fixated on statistics. And despite the advice of mentors & experts to concentrate on the quality of the content, it is very tempting for producers to look all too often at download rates, total downloads, number of advert impressions, number of episodes…the list goes on.  This obsession leads to multiple daily site visits with the sole purpose of seeing how many more downloads have ticked by since the last check.  Some might say this is unhealthy, if not a little vain, and I think they’d be correct.

However, it is important to celebrate milestones, and as such we are thrilled to see that our great friends at the Airplane Geeks Podcast have reached the 100 episode mark. The show first hit the internet on June 10th, 2008 and has become a weekly institution for aviation news and fascinating guests.  There were many other aviation podcasts that came before them, but Airplane Geeks are kind of different from the usual “hanger flying” shows.  Focused more on the heavy iron than general aviation, the show is easy going and covers airlines and industry news from around the world.

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Having fun thanks to PCDU

For those of you who don’t know it, I’m co-host of the Plane Crazy Down Under podcast, currently Australia’s only aviation podcast although we know of a new one that’s about to start up soon. It’s been going for almost a year and, thanks in no small amount to the efforts of my co-host Steve Visscher, it’s growing steadily and our production quality is light years ahead of where we first started.

We’ve interviewed Red Bull Air Race pilots like Matt Hall, Nigel Lamb and Hannes Arch. We’ve been to airshows & aviation events, hanging out on the flight line in the “no public areas” (wooo :) We’ve chatted with RA/GA pilots, airline pilots, analysts, air traffic controllers and enthusiasts. We’ve even scored media passes and are starting to have all sorts of opportunities open up that, with a bit of effort & luck, could turn into a great future merging aviation & technology.

It’s been a great first year (we launched our first episode in mid-July, 2009) and there’s still so much that we can be doing. I’ve got more than I can manage given I’m also trying to earn a living, but to say I’m excited about all this is an understatement. Who knows, maybe one day I’ll get that media ride in a combat jet… (ya gotta have dreams :)

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Even with flight computers, you can over stress an Airbus tail

Remember the American Airlines A300 that crashed in the US after the vertical stabiliser broke off? The co-pilot over stressed the tail by pumping the rudders in an attempt to get out of wake-turbulence.

In a similar situation in 2008, an Air Canada A319 encountered wake turbulence and the pilot’s rudder & side stick inputs put the aircraft into a slip, stressing the vertical stabiliser beyond certified limits. The pilot wasn’t aware that they were encountering wake turbulence and thought it was a problem with the flight control computers (perhaps similar to the Qantas A330 problems off the coast of West Australia).

At first I thought the Airbus flight computers on the A319 were supposed to keep the aircraft within a flight envelope and prevent stressing the airframe. Then I thought maybe they’d gone into Alternate Law but there still should be some protection, right?

Well, here’s what I found when I read through the Canadian Transportation Safety Board’s report:

  • The pilot’s actions in trying to correct the problems actually made things worse and also caused the flight computers to drop down into Alternate Law, removing some of the flight envelope protections they usually provide
  • The A319 flight computers don’t provide envelope protection in yaw, meaning they won’t prevent a pilot from overdoing it on the rudder
  • The A319’s rudder control system has a similar design to that of the A300 and can allow full rudder deflections at high speed even when only small inputs are made on the pedals (so imagine what happens when a pilot is reacting in a shock situation)
  • Like many airlines, Air Canada’s “upset training” focused more on pitch issues, not yaw issues. Also, the issue of rudder reversals during wake turbulence was not covered during recurrent training and training material from the A330/A340 that covers the issue wasn’t available to A319/A320 pilots.

Interesting stuff and certainly eye opening for me when I had been thinking that the post-A300 Airbus flight computers were supposed to protect from excessive inputs. Yet more confirmation of the Swiss Cheese error model and the ability of a surprised pilot to override the systems. Fortunately the vertical stabiliser on the A319 was able to take the strain, closing one of the holes in the cheese.

Oh yeah, did I mention that incident/accident reports make for fun breakfast reading for anyone interested in aviation :)

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How fast the tables turn

It wasn’t that long ago that Virgin Blue could do no wrong in the eyes of the mainstream media while Qantas was being hounded over any little maintenance issue and its rapidly falling loads. How times change.

In the past few weeks we’ve had reports from Virgin Blue that they’re “only” going to make $20 to $40 million this financial year instead of the $80 million they’d been saying only a few weeks earlier. The reduction was blamed on reduced consumer sentiment, a fall in leisure travel and an expectation that domestic airfares would drop by 10%. Given the fragile nature of the Australian psyche at the moment and the notice arriving after a week of sell-offs in the stock market, naturally the share price took a beating and dropped over 25%.

The drop flowed on briefly to Qantas as you’d expect them to be hit with the same domestic drop, however they released news that they were still on track for a good profit and in fact had seen passenger numbers increase. Further rubbing salt into the wounds, they’re talking about increased service as their next two A380s come on line and Bruce Buchanan (CEO of Jetstar) was stating that the Qantas group is well positioned to thrive as the premium market is recovering and Jetstar is an international operation so it’s not completely exposed to domestic down turns.

As if all that wasn’t enough, at the same time Virgin is reassessing their routes and contemplating a single brand strategy, Qantas also release news that Jetstar will be trialling the iPad for inflight entertainment (though Apple may not be entirely supporting it). They also announced they are linking up with Air France/KLM to provide better access to Europe from Paris & Amsterdam as Jetstar starts pushing into Europe.

Whew, a flurrry of good news stories from Qantas while Virgin Blue is being realistic and suddenly it’s Virgin Blue struggling on the floor while Qantas is lifted into the shining light. Wow!

During all this, there was no real mention of the ongoing Jetstarisation of Qantas. Sure, premium may actually have given signs it’s not entirely dead and the next couple of A380s will let Qantas move some 744s onto route expansion, but all the big news is happening in Jetstar.

it’s interesting to note that the iPad wasn’t being trialed on Qantas flights, even though the flying kangaroo is found on domestic routes and the iPad’s 10 hour battery life would be fine for shorter international routes. You’d think that they’d be trying to link up the cool, funky iPad with the strong, powerful, premium Qantas brand, not the discount, cut-price, penny pinching Jetstar.

As to Air France/KLM, well, what about Qantas’ flights into Europe and their linkages with British Airways? Are these routes going to fall away with only the “Kangaroo Route” from Australia to the UK remaining as Jetstar takes over all the rest?

Face it: If it’s new, big or the future, it’s going to be Jetstar. Qantas will remain and may increase here & there, but it’s only going to be where a high-end product can be comfortably sustained. But even if the high-end market does increase, it won’t outshine the solid income from the economy (& premium economy) end of the market, especially as Qantas has stiff competition from Emirates & Singapore when it comes to luxury.

Meanwhile, as all this is unfolding, there are a few references to the dramatic drop in Virgin Blue’s expected profit being due to John Borghetti starting work as the new CEO with a “clean desk.” I believe that this is exactly what’s happening as Borghetti has been brought in to take Virgin Blue to a new level, re-purposing it towards the “New World Airline” concept which is exactly what he’s doing (reassessing route structure & fleet composition, targeting the business market and rationalising the brand).

Naturally this sort of change is going to take effort away from “business as usual” operations and will have a material impact on Virgin Blue’s earnings potential. By announcing a dramatic reduction to expected profits, Borghetti has cleared the decks, allowing him to make the sweeping changes he wants without having to be constrained or distracted by the original high earnings target.

This is also very much like the way Qantas would inform the stock market in the past. They would announce expectations of a tidy profit and good results during the year, then typically would end the year exceeding expectations and returning better than predicted results. By understating their public expectations but striving internally for more, they frequently achieved better than the market expected.

John Borghetti spent 36 years with Qantas so he “grew up” with this kind of ‘announce low but aim high’ approach. Is it any surprise that he may be introducing the same concept at Virgin Blue now that he’s in charge?

Actually, the surprise for me is that the mainstream media hasn’t made this connection. Maybe they’re caught up in the short term memory loss of the “now!” approach to reporting?

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BA Cabin Crew Learned from Alitalia???

Let’s see now, British Airways have been struggling for a while with reports of poor service, losing high-end premium customers, cutting back on routes and recently announcing a second record financial loss in a row. Throw in the impact from that volcano in Iceland and they are showing every sign of a major legacy carrier that’s about to go under.

So, in a move copied straight from Alitalia’s union play book, the cabin crew at British Airways are going on strike. Are these people crazy or what? Whether they have a valid set of grievances is not really the point right now because win or lose, they’re going to help kill British Airways. The last thing they should be doing is going on strike as all it’s doing is driving even more passengers away from the airline, further rupturing BA’s cash flow and increasing the odds that the airline will collapse.

I thought it was just Alitalia that did stupid stunts like this. Maybe the British have been importing more than soccer players from Italy?

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